Swedish study finds melanoma incidence, mortality have declined since 2015

Key takeaways:

• Melanoma incidence rose annually by 4.2% to 4.8% among those aged 50 to 59 years.
• From 2013 to 2015, individuals aged 20 to 49 years experienced peak incidence rates which significantly declined through 2022.

The rates of melanoma incidence have significantly declined since approximately 2015 in patients aged younger than 50 years while mortality also dropped in those aged younger than 60, according to a Swedish study.

“In recent years, Australia and the U.S. have experienced a downward trend in melanoma incidence in younger age groups,” Hildur Helgadottir, MD, PhD, a senior research specialist in the department of oncology and pathology at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden, and colleagues wrote. “Yet, none of the European countries have reported a significant decline in melanoma incidence in any age group.”

Using the Swedish Melanoma Registry and Swedish National Cancer Register, the authors looked into the melanoma incidence and mortality trends in Sweden, specifically among younger individuals.

Data from 1990 to 2022 were collected amounting to a total of 34,800 primary invasive cutaneous melanomas in 33,324 individuals aged younger than 60 years (median age, 48 years; 56.3% women).

Results showed that melanoma incidence consistently rose among those aged 50 to 59 years with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 4.2% (95% CI, 3.5%-4.8%) in women and 4.8% (95% CI, 4.1%-5.4%) in men, which the researchers said were similar and showed “no tendency to level off.”

From 2013 to 2015, individuals aged 20 to 49 years experienced peak incidence rates which then either remained stable or significantly declined through 2022.

After 2014, both the 20 to 29 and 30 to 39 years age groups saw an AAPC rate of –5.2% (95% CI, –9% to –1.3% and –8.2% to –2%, respectively) resulting in an incidence rate of 7 and 3 per 100,000 women and men in their 20s, and 18 and 10 per 100,000 women and men in their 30s, by 2022.

After 2015, those aged 40 to 49 years saw a leveling off of the AAPC rate for women (–1.5%; 95% CI, –3.6% to –0.6%) and men (–0.8%; 95% CI, –3.7% to –2.2%). By 2022, the melanoma incidence in this age group was 45 and 25 per 100,000 women and men, respectively.

Those aged younger than 20 years saw no fluctuations during the study, with the exception of females seeing an AAPC of –2.1%. Overall, the incidence rate remained below 1 per 100,000 females and males.

According to the study, melanoma mortality also significantly declined in individuals aged 30 to 59 years.

“To summarize, in this nationwide cohort study of the Swedish population, we found a significant trend shift, with an incidence decline among younger individuals,” the authors wrote. “These findings raise the hope that individuals 50 years and older will eventually follow suit, with lower melanoma incidence and mortality in the whole population.”