Melanoma death rates expected to fall by 2050

Researchers presenting at the 2017 European Cancer Congress predict that melanoma death rates will fall by 2050, according to a press release.

Alice Koechlin of the International Prevention Research Institute, Lyon, France, said in the presentation that people who were at the highest risk for dying of melanoma were those born between 1900 and 1960, due to the effects of ultraviolet light being largely unknown and professionals advising on the benefits of sun exposure.

While the actual number of deaths from melanoma are expected to increase until 2030 to 2035 because of aging populations, death rates should continue to fall after that period.

Peak deaths rates were observed in 2015 for Australian men and in 1990 for Australian women; in 2005 and 1995 for U.S. men and women, respectively; and around 2010 for both Swedish men and women.

The rates predicted for 2050 would be twofold lower for Australia compared with peak death rates, two and a half to three times lower for U.S. men and women, and one and a half times lower than peak years for Sweden. The researchers predicted these numbers based on the assumption that no effective therapy exists for melanoma, according to the release.

“With an effective therapy, we would expect to see decreases in the number of melanoma deaths from 2030,” Koechlin said. “In 2050, the numbers of melanoma deaths in Australia would be equal to those of around 2005: 846 men and 408 women. In the [United States], they would be equal to those of around 1990 for men with 3,646 deaths, and to 1980 for women with 1,876 deaths. In Sweden, they would be equal to those of around 2000: 231 men and 174 women. As time passes, melanoma deaths will become steadily rarer in people younger than 50 years, and after 2050, practically all melanoma deaths will occur in people over the age of 70.”

Reference: www.ecco-org.eu